Photo by 9ine6ix

It’s almost impossible to converse about influenza A / H1N1 without touching on the 1918 Spanish Flu. Why is that? Worry-filled observers try to draw parallels between the two. “This will be another 1918 Spanish Flu,” they say. “Wait until the fall,” they warn. But are they right?

Yes, swine flu and the Spanish flu are both of the influenza A / H1N1 subtype. And, yes, it’s true that the 1918 Spanish flu began its initial spread during spring, reaching it’s peak virulence the following fall. However, the current influenza A / H1N1 is not showing the deadliness that the 1918 Spanish flu displayed during its spring upstart.

But some still contest that as influenza A / H1N1 didn’t have the opportunity to reach its deadly potential–it didn’t appear until the tail end of flu season. Influenza has little ability to spread during the summer months, so influenza A / H1N1 will likely lie dormant until next fall. But most experts suggest that future infections will continue to be relatively mild.

However, with so little observational data available, completely refuting the doomsayer theory of a deadly fall outbreak proves difficult. So should we err on the side of caution, stockpile anti-virals, and hunker down until it all blows over? Just in case?

In the norther hemisphere, with little collateral damage, influenza A / H1N1′s spread is slowly dropping off as summer approaches. But fearfully waiting until fall to see if it has any unknown deadly potential wont be necessary. Influenza A / H1N1 has already been confirmed in New Zealand and Brazil.

The flu season in the southern hemisphere is just beginning, and swine flu already has a running start. If the doomsayers are correct, they’ll be all over the media in the next few weeks. For those living in the northern hemisphere, don’t worry about canceling any spring or summer plans. Take out the sun shades, hit the beach, and relax.