The steady decrease in pirates and the increase in global warming over the last few centuries are strongly correlated (i.e. they appear to change at related rates). However, does this imply that pirates were preventing global warming? What about foreign lemon imports and autism rates? Has the increase in US lemon imports contributed to the increase in autism rates? Undoubtedly, these examples seem silly and unlikely, but knowing why requires an understanding of the difference between correlation and causation. The following video (broken up in to two parts) summarizes these differences quite nicely.

Disclaimer: In no way do I mean to downplay gravity of autism. With an incidence rate now estimated around 1 in 150, it inflicts a heavy burden on our families, friends, and communities. However, this makes it even more important to maintain a high degree of discretion when it comes to searching for a cause and a cure. Witch-burnings (e.g. the anti-vaccine movement) fueled by emotion and backed by poor evidence will only lead to dead ends and serve to slow down the progress of real scientific discovery.

[Continue Reading "Vaccines Cause Autism? And Lemons Limit Highway Fatalities?"]

Not long ago, US headlines were inundated with horror stories about the dangers of biphenol A (BPA), a chemical used to manufacture polycarbonate bottles. The articles invoked the words that would bring any American family to arms: “It could harm your children,” they read. BPA was effectively demonized. But what sources did the media use to justify the hype? Might BPA be no more a demon than a fluffy bunny? [...]

[Continue Reading "BPA, the Media, and Super Scary Science"]

It’s almost impossible to talk about influenza A / H1N1 without touching on the 1918 Spanish Flu. Why is that? Because the more worry-filled observers try to draw parallels between the two, “This will be another 1918 Spanish Flu,” they say. “Wait until the fall,” they warn. But are they right? [...]

[Continue Reading "“Wait Until Next Season,” They Warn…"]

Egypt decided to slaughter all of their nation’s 300,000 pigs, President Obama asked Congress for $1.5 billion for flu preparedness, and China herded and quarantined 70 healthy Mexican nationals. But why? Is all the fear and preparation justifiable? [...]

[Continue Reading "Are Influenza Preparations Justifiable?"]

More swine flu news (I know, it’s been a hot topic these last few days). The number of deaths in Mexico attributable to swine flu are up, but there have still been no deaths or hospitalizations in the US. [...]

[Continue Reading "Swine Flu? And WHO? No Biggie, Miss Piggie."]

The news is flooded with headlines like “Mexico City on alert over swine flu outbreak” and “Mexico Swine Flu Epidemic Worries World”. So far, there have been 42 deaths from 1112 confirmed cases of A/H1N1 subtype influenza in Mexico (May 7, 2009, WHO). [...]

[Continue Reading "Piggie Pandemic Potentially Pending?"]